La Nina has been the situation in Brazil and that has resulted in dryness that can be impacting early soybean plantings and may well continue to impact winter crops (safrinha). The outlook for rain may be present but it looks to be scattered with no consistent moisture available for the dry soils.

This outlook goes through mid-October and it may take a break in the La Nina to get the moisture that will be required. To go along with this dryness there has been heat that is further drying soils and stressing young crops.

Click the maps below for more information

At the time of writing, all of Europe is forecast to be warmer than usual in May–July. Already dryer-than-normal soils will warm quicker and intensify the heating. The potential crop stress may be evident with lower yields and grain quality. As for precipitation, much of Europe’s grain production area is projected to receive lower-than-normal rainfall. Portions of northern and eastern Europe are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall in June and July. The timing of this rainfall may create a situation for increased Fusarium molds in small grain crops. These molds can produce Trichothecenes, Fusaric Acid, Zearalenone and Emerging Mycotoxins. The resulting risk can impact livestock feed intake, weight gain, milk and egg production, reproduction and immune response.

The winter of 2019 for Europe was, for the most part, one of the warmest two winters in the past 40 years (JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No. 3, March 2020). The U.K., northern Europe and the Mediterranean coastal areas in southern Europe are the areas that received above-normal to normal rainfall, with the remainder of Europe at less-than-normal precipitation. The majority of Europe is starting the spring and summer with drier-than-normal soils and warmer-than-normal temperatures.

Looking forward to planting and growing season and harvest for cereals, the forecast maps (https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) indicate some potential issues.

At the time of writing, all of Europe is forecast to be warmer than usual in May–July. Already dryer-than-normal soils will warm quicker and intensify the heating. The potential crop stress may be evident with lower yields and grain quality. As for precipitation, much of Europe’s grain production area is projected to receive lower-than-normal rainfall. Portions of northern and eastern Europe are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall in June and July. The timing of this rainfall may create a situation for increased Fusarium molds in small grain crops. These molds can produce Trichothecenes, Fusaric Acid, Zearalenone and Emerging Mycotoxins. The resulting risk can impact livestock feed intake, weight gain, milk and egg production, reproduction and immune response.

The weather has been dry, and the two-week forecast (shown below), as of April 20, 2020, shows little-to-no rainfall for a significant portion of Brazil’s corn-growing region. This, along with hot temperatures, may have a negative impact on safrina. Fumonisin is typically the mycotoxin of risk in this region, and it certainly looks as though it may be again.